Since Donald Trump's announcement that he was running for president, he has been pounding his plan to fix illegal immigration. As part of his plan, he announced that he would build a fence to keep out illegal immigrants from Mexico. (even if the vast majority of illegal immigrants are not from Mexico, and the population of illegals has stayed the same over the last five years around 11 million)His big plan includes building a wall at the U.S. border and deport those who are here illegally. This sounds simple enough right? He claims he will force Mexico to pay for the wall. How exactly?
According to his website: "Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options]. We will not be taken advantage of anymore."
Apparently Donald Trump is under the impression he can just pass whatever rules he wants and that nothing will happen. Let's play along though and say that he does get the increase in fees in order to pay for the $6 billion wall he wants to put in place. Does he imagine if we implement increases in fees that they won't increase theirs or put the costs back to us in goods that come here? Does he imagine if he were to put tariffs on Mexican goods the WTO wouldn't slap us with a massive fine of billions of dollars for doing so? He also says he wouldn't build it until after illegal immigrants were deported.
Does he not think that such actions would have massive affects that would ripple across the U.S. economy, leading possibly to another recession? But Congress as lazy as they are would never agree to this to begin with, so it is unlikely that would happen.
Next he imagines somehow that he would be able to deport millions of illegals living in the U.S, even ones who have only really ever known this country as their home and have no family or friends in other countries, and might not even speak the language. He imagines that somehow he'd be able to do this in 2 years. He seems to think he is a king and can ignore the bill of rights, the fact that he doesn't have the authority to fund any of this as president, and it would be very unlikely that Congress would pass a bill funding the mass deportation of immigrants.
Even if he got past the governors in states that are friendly to illegals, and gets permission from Congress, the cost to deport that many people has been estimated between $140 and $200 billion. We would also probably need an additional $2-3 billion a year for enforcement as well including all administrative costs, repairs, additional security measures etc.
Even if he got past the governors in states that are friendly to illegals, and gets permission from Congress, the cost to deport that many people has been estimated between $140 and $200 billion. We would also probably need an additional $2-3 billion a year for enforcement as well including all administrative costs, repairs, additional security measures etc.
The economic toll would be massive, leaving businesses without workers, shutting down many small businesses owned by illegals, leaving millions of property managers without tenants, we would see increased food prices with fewer workers in the fields etc. This would cost our economy billions of dollars in lost profits.
On food alone, the cost could be staggering according to The Hill: "From the perspective of National Milk Producers Federation in 2009, retail milk prices would increase by 61 percent if its immigrant labor force were to be eliminated...In terms of overall numbers, The Department of Labor reports that of the 2.5 million farm workers in the U.S., over half (53 percent) are illegal immigrants. Growers and labor unions put this figure at 70 percent. "
In 2006 over five hundred economists (including five Nobel laureates) sent a letter to then President George W. Buh which stated the following: “While a small percentage of native-born Americans may be harmed by immigration, vastly more Americans benefit from the contributions that immigrants make to our economy, including lower consumer prices.”
Some estimates of total cost to the GDP place the decrease at $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile the gang of eight bill, which Trump has criticized so heavily would have secured the border, implemented e-verify and put into place a plan for illegal immigrants to stay here and work toward a path to citizenship. The CBO estimated that this plan would cut the deficit by over $190 billion dollars, even after counting the cost of the added security along the border.
On food alone, the cost could be staggering according to The Hill: "From the perspective of National Milk Producers Federation in 2009, retail milk prices would increase by 61 percent if its immigrant labor force were to be eliminated...In terms of overall numbers, The Department of Labor reports that of the 2.5 million farm workers in the U.S., over half (53 percent) are illegal immigrants. Growers and labor unions put this figure at 70 percent. "
In 2006 over five hundred economists (including five Nobel laureates) sent a letter to then President George W. Buh which stated the following: “While a small percentage of native-born Americans may be harmed by immigration, vastly more Americans benefit from the contributions that immigrants make to our economy, including lower consumer prices.”
Some estimates of total cost to the GDP place the decrease at $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile the gang of eight bill, which Trump has criticized so heavily would have secured the border, implemented e-verify and put into place a plan for illegal immigrants to stay here and work toward a path to citizenship. The CBO estimated that this plan would cut the deficit by over $190 billion dollars, even after counting the cost of the added security along the border.
Trump also ignores that border security has already been beefed up, and the amount of illegals coming in has already significantly dropped because of the difficulty in crossing. The gang of eight bill realized that we needed more than just a fence, and implemented drones, electronic surveillance and significantly increased numbers of ground security. Building a fence or wall isn't going to guarantee no one comes, yes we need to secure the border but it needs to be done in a way that makes sense, not one that just sounds good in a soundbite.
We do need to work towards fixing our immigration issues, but we need to do this in a way that helps our economy and strengthens our nation. Diving into more massive debt and devastating our economy is not a smart method to protecting our national interests. While Trump may be a smart businessman, he obviously doesn't understand the complexity of the U.S. economy.
