The Donald Trump Immigration Plan Would Never Work and Here's Why

Since Donald Trump's announcement that he was running for president, he has been pounding his plan to fix illegal immigration. As part of his plan, he announced that he would build a fence to keep out illegal immigrants from Mexico. (even if the vast majority of illegal immigrants are not from Mexico, and the population of illegals has stayed the same over the last five years around 11 million)

His big plan includes building a wall at the U.S. border and deport those who are here illegally. This sounds simple enough right? He claims he will force Mexico to pay for the wall. How exactly?

According to his website: "Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options].  We will not be taken advantage of anymore."

Apparently Donald Trump is under the impression he can just pass whatever rules he wants and that nothing will happen. Let's play along though and say that he does get the increase in fees in order to pay for the $6 billion wall he wants to put in place. Does he imagine if we implement increases in fees that they won't increase theirs or put the costs back to us in goods that come here? Does he imagine if he were to put tariffs on Mexican goods the WTO wouldn't slap us with a massive fine of billions of dollars for doing so? He also says he wouldn't build it until after illegal immigrants were deported.

Does he not think that such actions would have massive affects that would ripple across the U.S. economy, leading possibly to another recession? But Congress as lazy as they are would never agree to this to begin with, so it is unlikely that would happen.

Next he imagines somehow that he would be able to deport millions of illegals living in the U.S, even ones who have only really ever known this country as their home and have no family or friends in other countries, and might not even speak the language. He imagines that somehow he'd be able to do this in 2 years. He seems to think he is a king and can ignore the bill of rights, the fact that he doesn't have the authority to fund any of this as president, and it would be very unlikely that Congress would pass a bill funding the mass deportation of immigrants.

Even if he got past the governors in states that are friendly to illegals, and gets permission from Congress, the cost to deport that many people has been estimated between $140 and $200 billion. We would also probably need an additional $2-3 billion a year for enforcement as well including all administrative costs, repairs, additional security measures etc.

The economic toll would be massive, leaving businesses without workers, shutting down many small businesses owned by illegals, leaving millions of property managers without tenants, we would see increased food prices with fewer workers in the fields etc. This would cost our economy billions of dollars in lost profits.

On food alone, the cost could be staggering according to The Hill: "From the perspective of National Milk Producers Federation in 2009, retail milk prices would increase by 61 percent if its immigrant labor force were to be eliminated...In terms of overall numbers, The Department of Labor reports that of the 2.5 million farm workers in the U.S., over half (53 percent) are illegal immigrants. Growers and labor unions put this figure at 70 percent. "

In 2006 over five hundred economists (including five Nobel laureates) sent a letter to then President George W. Buh which stated the following:  “While a small percentage of native-born Americans may be harmed by immigration, vastly more Americans benefit from the contributions that immigrants make to our economy, including lower consumer prices.”

Some estimates of total cost to the GDP place the decrease at $1.6 trillion. Meanwhile the gang of eight bill, which Trump has criticized so heavily would have secured the border, implemented e-verify and put into place a plan for illegal immigrants to stay here and work toward a path to citizenship. The CBO estimated that this plan would cut the deficit by over $190 billion dollars, even after counting the cost of the added security along the border.

Trump also ignores that border security has already been beefed up, and the amount of illegals coming in has already significantly dropped because of the difficulty in crossing. The gang of eight bill realized that we needed more than just a fence, and implemented drones, electronic surveillance and significantly increased numbers of ground security. Building a fence or wall isn't going to guarantee no one comes, yes we need to secure the border but it needs to be done in a way that makes sense, not one that just sounds good in a soundbite.

We do need to work towards fixing our immigration issues, but we need to do this in a way that helps our economy and strengthens our nation. Diving into more massive debt and devastating our economy is not a smart method to protecting our national interests. While Trump may be a smart businessman, he obviously doesn't understand the complexity of the U.S. economy.

Let's Get to work on Immigration Reform

I am a conservative and I support immigration reform. In fact I also support a form of amnesty for a good number of illegal immigrants that our currently in our country. Our country has been facing a long standing question on immigration reform, which is: What should we do about the 11 million undocumented illegal immigrants who are living in our country? Should we deport them all to their country of origin, grant them amnesty and let them stay with a path to citizenship or just continue to ignore the problem and hope that it just gets taken care of on its own.

Now let me make this clear I do support all current laws on the books and I think that Obama's actions of giving amnesty without legal backing is unconstitutional. It is his duty to execute the law as dictated by congress; he does not have the authority to pick and choose which laws to execute.

Being a firm believer that presidential authority has surpassed constitutional limits through  decades of overreach, I  firmly believe that the president's authority should be scaled back significantly. The easier it is for the president to act without restraints and checks, the easier it will be for an evil man as president to bring upon mankind tyranny and injustice.

As a full supporter of the law, I support congressional authority on this issue, as it is a national issue, which affects the entire country in trade, security, education, and health care.

Considering the events of the last few weeks, securing our border has never been more important. Before addressing the topic of what is being considered I want to first discuss where I have come from so maybe you will see how I have come to my point of view on the issue.

There was a point several years ago where I was all for kicking out every illegal immigrant from our country. They broke our laws, came here illegally and had to be punished for that no matter what. This lasted for a quite a while.

One day I shared these opinions with my mom and she responded by asking me "what about your Aunt?" I have an Aunt who had recently married my Uncle, a paranoid schizophrenic. She came here legally but lost legal status and just stayed here and has since struggled to work toward legal status. I thought about this for a little while.

Before this point I hadn't known anyone who was in the U.S. illegally. I was still stuck in my thoughts and opinions, but it started me thinking. If she were to be deported, what would be the impact on my uncle? He would probably have another episode or possibly something worse.

 While in college I talked to several people including a friend who was working on his path to citizenship. He was born in Canada, but moved to the U.S. around age 3. It took him over 18 years to be able to get citizenship. Even for those who marry citizens the path is not always clear or easy. It can be a long, laborious process that takes many years.

There was a time that we welcomed everyone to come to America. I’m not suggesting that we encourage everyone to come here, but by far we seem to believe that only a few people should come - that they should be similar to who we already are and should speak English perfectly. We used to be a melting pot of countries, ideas and immigrants, but now we are becoming more intolerant and ignorant of other cultures and beliefs.

 In 2007 I was in Las Vegas, and I saw many people whom I was familiar with take to the streets to rally for immigration reform that had been supported by President George W. Bush. This attempt at reform was struck down by congressional Republicans. A few years passed, and our country dipped into what is now being referred to as the Great Recession. I talked with friends of mine from Vegas who mentioned that many illegal immigrants were returning back to their countries due to lack of work. I wondered if this would continue. If so we would not have a problem anymore. The issue with that idea is that many of these people grew up in the U.S, and to them this is their country and many of them don't even speak the home language of their country of birth.

While interning in the Senate I had a long discussion once about my views on immigration with a fellow intern, during which we did some what-ifs. What if someone was brought here as a 2 year old and they are now 23, have never known the country they were born in, and only know this country as their home? How then do you justify punishing a 2 year old for the actions of their parents? I still remained pretty stiff in my response. I looked at what I felt is the burden of illegal immigration. If somehow we got rid of 11 million immigrants then maybe the 14 million people who are out of work would have enough jobs available for them. Maybe our school system would get better, maybe our country wouldn't have as much debt.

 I even thoroughly liked Mitt Romney's idea of self deportation by discouraging illegal immigrants through e-verify and similar methods. The change had started though, as I realized how my ancestors had come to this nation at a time when this land was a shining beacon to all who wanted a new life. We didn't tell others that they couldn't come to our nation because they were poor, or because they couldn't speak the language.

Instead we inscribed on the Statue of Liberty the phrase "Give me your tired, your poor/Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free."  

Now that I've addressed some whys of immigration reform, let's think about the what. What is being considered? The current senate bill that was passed last year included a long list of ideas including securing the borders, a path to citizenship for illegal's and changing and modernizing the rules for legal immigration to prevent such a backlog and some of the other issues occurring due to the current system.

A simple breakdown of the bill can be found here. I will not go into detail as you can find all of that information for yourself about some of the benefits here, here and here. I would also suggest taking a look at both the Heritage Foundation's opinion and the Cato Institute's opinion on the issues.  I will say a few words however. The bill calls for significant increases to border security through drones and electronic surveillance equipment in addition to the security increase we have seen in the last decade. It would establish a board made up of state leaders to determine when securing the border is complete, which would be made in a final decision by the Director of Homeland Security. Also it calls for an effective plan to enforce employers using documented legal employees which would most likely be through the e-verify system.

This bill may not be perfect, but so far it is the best plan that I have seen. We need our legislators to get to work on this issue now, and stop kicking it down the road for the next Congress to deal with.

Part of the bill also lays out a plan for dealing with both legal and illegal immigrants, giving preferred green cards for those who obtain advanced degrees in areas such as science, math, and engineering. In dealing with the 11 million illegal immigrants the plan calls for increased background checks for immigrants and increased cooperation between government organizations in order to respond to issues that come up. It would create a tracking system to make sure that those who come legally continue to abide here legally.

Those who are currently here illegally could apply for legal status if they pay a fine, pay back taxes, and if they pass a background check. They would then be on probationary legal status. However, for full legal status and a green card they would still have to get to the back of the line and wait for all security measures to be put in place. The earliest that any of them could become citizens is in the late 2020's. They also would not get access to public benefits, such as welfare, until granted full citizenship.

So what has been the response to this plan? Some republicans continue to raise the issue that amnesty supports tearing down our current system of laws and encouraging people to break them in the future, although the party seems split on the issue. Earlier this week there was some suggestion that maybe we should rethink pushing immigration reform right now coming from Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), but this was shot down by several republican members of congress including Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

Also, with this has come the issue of whether to pass a comprehensive bill or to go through the process of passing some of the bills piecemeal. Some members suggested that attaching amnesty would surely doom the bill.  The House is set to consider several portions of the bill in small pieces including security and legal immigration changes.

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) has lead the front to support the bill from the republican side. He recently went to the senate floor to support reform at this time saying, “Here’s my encouragement to my colleagues who don’t agree with the bill that we’ve crafted – change it. Let’s work on changing it. If you believe that what we have today is broken, if you believe that the status quo on immigration is chaos and a disaster...If you believe our laws are not being enforced and we need to pass laws that force the administration – this one and a future one – to enforce our laws, let’s change it. I’m all ears." Surely none of us is opposed to enforcing our proper laws and having a president that supports and upholds the laws of the land are we? However the current system does not do that: it encourages the president to act on his own and not have to take responsibility for his actions.

He continued by saying, "But let’s not leave it the way it is, because the way it is chaos. It’s bad for our country. What we have today is not good for the United States. And our job as policy-makers is not just to come here and criticize. Our job is to come here and to make a difference. .. And what we have now just doesn’t work, it’s not good for our country. We can’t leave it this way. And we have a chance now to, I think, truly improve it. This is not an effort to force anything down anyone’s throat. This bill that we’ve worked on is a starting point. It’s not a take it or leave it proposition. It never has been....Let’s work together. Let’s come up with a solution that modernizes our legal immigration system so it’s good for our economy, that once and for all forces the administration – this one and future ones – to enforce our immigration laws, and that once and for all deals with the 11 million people that are here illegally in a way that’s fair and compassionate. But also fair to the people that did it right, and also a way that ensures that this never ever happens again.”

So what are my views on this issue? Greatly changed: partly due to an increased compassion for other people who I have met and who I have not; partly due to politics and seeing that real change could be made here and now and that we need more compromise; and partly because I understand that there are millions of people that are affected by living here illegally that could be productive members of our society if we allow them.

This plan is fair and fairly straightforward. It does bring about a consequence for those who have committed the crime of coming here illegally through fines, back taxes, a waiting period, and through back of the line status. It also upholds our laws by helping us to have 11 million immigrants become legal. I wonder sometimes how many crimes are not reported because someone is afraid to call the police out of fear that they or their parents might get deported over it. It would lay out a pretty clear plan that would have to be followed with the opportunities for our border to be secured and for people to be able to come to the U.S. legally in the future.

It also allows for the great American Dream to spread further to these people who have come here for a new life, one which they hoped would be better than the one that they left. There was a time when America was a shining beacon to the world of freedom for the oppressed peoples of the world. We even inscribed on the Statue of Liberty the phrase "Give me your tired, your poor/Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free." Those who would benefit from this bill are for the most part looking for hope and freedom, much like most of our ancestors when they came here. This plan gives them that hope. This hope and freedom was what we were founded upon. Let us not fail again to be the hope of a brighter day to the world by oppressing those within our country who wish to partake of the American dream.

Looking forward to 2014 Politics in the U.S.

Christmas is over and gone, most of us are looking at making resolutions and a new year. As we look forward to a new year, 2014 has many issues on the horizon. As we mentioned before, Congress last year was one of the least effective in decades, it has many policy questions lying in front of it. Additionally we have midterm elections.
So here are some of the thing to look at come next year:

1. Austerity, deficit spending and the debt ceiling. We saw a government shutdown last year what will happen when the debt ceiling needs to be raised again come mid February. Our debt has already passed 17 trillion dollars, what is the plan moving forward?

2. Midterm elections, many think it's a given that the house will remain in Republican hands, but how many seats will change hands? The Senate is more of a toss-up and recent polling shows Democrats and republicans in a dead heat in polling.

3. Will immigration reform or gun control be addressed? These two hot button issues affect a large population of the United States, and most people think some form of reform is needed. What will happen though, especially as both sides remain sharply divided.

4. Will the economy have a better recovery next year and will it be substantial? Unemployment continues to lag, what will be done to turn things around? What will our leaders do to improve things?

5. The vast majority of Americans support minimum wage increases, but with the current gridlock in washington, what will become of it? Should it be raised and what will the effect be?

6. Foreign policy in Iran, North Korea and Cuba what will happen here? Will Iran and North Korea be forced to abandon their Nuclear policies, will Cuba and the U.S. warm in relations?

One thing is for sure, next year won't be a boring one in the political field. Be sure to follow these issues and more next year on the Political Discussions blog.

From all of us at Political Discussions we want to wish you a  Happy New Year!

Mark Zuckerberg and Immigration Reform: Why we need it now.

If you haven't read my original post on immigration reform I encourage you to read it here. In the last few weeks Mark Zuckerberg's group FWD.org released several videos encouraging Americans to support immigration reform in the U.S. The overall point of the following video is to take home the human aspect of this important issue. They are trying to impress upon us that many immigrants believe in American values and want their piece of the American dream. They don't want to be a burden on our system, they want to be here legally.





While it is true that these people are here illegally, it is because of our current outdated laws. If not for that they could be fully functioning members of our society. For most Americans our ancestors came here with the same dreams as many of those who have come here illegally in the last 30 years; their dreams included freedom from religious persecution, tyrannical governments, security for themselves and their children, to gain an education, and to have new opportunities to improve their financial situation.

Many people support changing the current laws, which have become limiting and ineffective in encouraging legal immigration to the U.S. and often punish those who have known no other country but the U.S. as home. The backlog for working visas, even for high skill workers, has become limiting to our nations growth especially in high tech fields. Even spouses of citizens often have a difficult time receiving visas due to the difficulty navigating our system.

This is a serious issue and it deserves a serious debate by our leaders about the best path forward. We need to increase our security checks and protect both our border and our citizens from those who would do harm to us; but we also need to make a clear path for those who share our values, by preparing the way for those who want to come and by making a path to citizenship for those who are here illegally.

There is an opposition to reform, and I do understand some of the arguments used by opponents to the bipartisan immigration reform bill. As you may be aware there is a bill which has passed in the U.S. Senate earlier this year that is awaiting consideration in the U.S. House of Representatives. The bill attempts to address many of the immigration reform issues including securing the border, providing a pathway to citizenship, and providing for more clear regulations on providing visas.

The opposition often points at one major concern: illegal immigrants will be rewarded for coming to the U.S. illegally by granting citizenship. These are the individuals that call any path to citizenship no matter how rigorous "amnesty" and say that it is unacceptable. They state that by offering a path to citizenship we will have failed to uphold the rule of law. They feel there is nothing wrong with current laws but that current laws just need to be enforced.

The answer to this concern though can be answered in several ways, two of which I will explain here. The first is answered by posing these questions: what would you have us do with the (estimated) 14 million immigrants here, many of whom have been here for over 15 years and some who have never known another country? Would you punish them because they were babies when their parents brought them here by sending them to a country where they don't speak the language and don't know anyone? The answer to these questions is no because the cost of deporting 14 million people would be ridiculously high. Instead, the bill requires the border to be secured by adding border patrol agents and electronic monitoring, including drones. Additionally it would implement the e-verify system to ensure workers are here legally. Only after these conditions are put in place would any illegals be allowed to be considered for a visa. It seems to be in our better interest both as members of the human family and as citizens of the United States that we reach out to those who are here illegally and offer them a hand up, not a shove out the door.

The second part of the answer is that there is a punishment put into place. Individuals here illegally would have to pay both a fine and back taxes which they owe, pass a background check, and wait for all those who have already applied to be considered for visas before they would get one. All things considered it is likely that the first individuals in this general category would have to wait 15 or more years to even be considered for citizenship.

Even with all of this, without significant Republican support in the house, it seems immigration reform might fail in the House if public support wavers at all on this issue. This is the best chance we have had in over 5 years to accomplish something which can have lasting positive impact on millions of individuals. I have applauded every member of the Senate who has voted for the bill.

“Today’s final immigration vote represents a product of many long hours of debate, discussion, and deliberation. It takes into consideration the necessity of securing America’s borders, while encouraging the lawful immigration of those who want to come to our shores to contribute to America’s greatness,” said Senator Dean Heller.

“While not perfect, this immigration reform bill is a step in the right direction towards fixing an immigration system that is clearly broken. No question, this has been a contentious debate. While the easy thing to do politically is nothing, the harder choice is to govern. I am pleased that both Democrats and Republicans were able to find ways to work together and pass legislation that this great nation deserves.”

To those who are on the fence about supporting the bipartisan gang of eight bill I say this: supporting it does not mean that you agree with everything in it, but it does recognize that this bill is the first significant piece of legislation with bipartisan support that has emerged from either house in the past 5 years, and with additional support it can also pass the House of Representatives.

I encourage you to do research on this bill, think through the issue, and contact your U.S. Representative to voice your support on this issue. It is vitally important that we as citizens become civically engaged in our democratic process in order to maintain our voice. I am glad that Mark Zuckerberg has thrown his support behind the movement and is raising awareness about the subject.