Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Embassy closings show the War on Terror is not over yet


Over the weekend U. S. embassies across the Middle East were closed due to security concerns. Today, the U.S. embassy in Yemen was evacuated and U.S. Citizens were told to leave the country due to an al-Qaeda threat.

In the last two weeks U.S. drones 4 times have targeted leaders of al-Qaeda in Yemen and it is believed that one of the dead  believed to be Saleh Jouti, a senior al-Qaeda member. Yesterday alone U.S. drone targeted a moving car in the  Marib province, killing four alleged al-Qaeda militants.

This comes as the State Department released a statement saying that the evacuations were due "“due to the continued potential for terrorist attacks.” After last year's terrorist attack on Benghazi it seems the administration is much more concerned with making sure that diplomatic staff in foreign countries receive adequate protection.

While it has long been known that there is a strong al-Qaeda presence in Yemen, it's strength has been growing and the potential for terrorist attacks seems more and more likely in the region due to the strong presence.

 “It’s very worrisome because al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is the most effective and threatening affiliate,” Bruce Hoffman, a Georgetown University professor told the Washington Post.

“So now the leader of the most consequential affiliate has an intimate command role in the overall organization. From Zawahiri’s point of view, there’s no better exemplar of the Qaeda brand than AQAP.”

While it is true that the core group of al-Qaeda was dispersed and diminished, it has slowly evolved in countries along the gulf and in North Africa, gaining support from governmental changes occurring due to the Arab spring and the continuing unrest in the region.

"We're witnessing another chapter of the terrorist threat and we'll be living with this for years to come,"  Juan Zarate, a deputy national security adviser under President George W. Bush who's now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington told USA Today.

The regional networks are adapting to new opportunities and continue to operate despite pressure put on them by the U.S. and others, Zarate said.

"They're also taking advantage of the political, security and geographic space they operate in. We don't control all aspects of that so it's unfair to blame U.S. policy entirely," he said.

The regional groups continue their activities supported by other radical Islamist groups in Algeria, Libya, Pakistan, Yemen, and other countries in the region. Concern continues even within the U.S. of al-Qaeda affiliates perpetrating terrorist attacks in the U.S. after the Boston Bombing earlier this year.

As the U.S. and it's allies continue to put pressure on it seems clear that we are not done yet, and continued pressure needs to be applied. It seems clear though that the senior leadership continues to be affected by the drone strikes, but that even without some of the senior leadership, the group continues.

Within the U.S. and around the world the questions continue about surveillance programs. Which wonder about their effectiveness and necessity, but results seem to show that at least some of them are necessary.

If the War on Terror can be won, one thing seems clear to us now, it won't be over soon. The theater in which the war plays out may continue to change but the overall influence of Radical Islam continues throughout much of the middle east, and until something changes to diminish it's influence it seems clear that attacks will continue to occur.