Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Are We Headed for Another Recession?

Image Source:Flickr
The Dow Jones Industrial Average(DOW) plummeted more than 1,000 points Monday morning. This fall in the stock market affected millions of Americans’ retirement plans, and many had fears of a recession returning. While stocks regained some of their lost ground by Monday afternoon, continued uncertainty over the global economy could have further impact.

The DOW is an indicator of U.S. industrial strength. It is one of the most watched stock indexes in the world, containing many massive companies like General Electric, Microsoft, Coca-Cola, and Exxon.

This all started with concerns over slowing growth in China's economy. China is the world's second-biggest economy. For two decades the country has seen explosive growth which has been the engine for the global economy. Their government is deep in debt from massive infrastructure growth. The country’s national debt rose from $7 trillion in 2007 to $28 trillion by mid-2014.

As their economy slows, their need for materials from other countries slows, and the effects can be felt world wide. There are many concerns that this could lead to a recession. A recession is considered two quarters of negative economic growth in a row. Historically we have seen a recession about once every five years since World War II. This window of time has lengthened, though, in the past couple of decades as times of growth have lasted longer due to the strengthened ability for the global economy to take a hit.

So are we now headed into the next recession? Well that depends on who you listen to. Most analysts are referring to the recent dip in the stock market as a market correction. Many people believe that the stock market's prices were inflated, meaning they cost more than they were actually worth, and that a correction like we saw yesterday was very necessary for the long term stability and strength of the stock market.

Some however look at the news coming from China as another signal of a stagnating economy that may fall back into a recession. In the U.S. wages have stagnated for years, and there are concerns over the direction of the future of the economy.

The reason most analysts aren't concerned over a major economic downturn is that the U.S. Economy has been gaining strength, especially in the energy sector where the U.S. has recently become the top oil and natural gas producer in the world.

Others point to new innovation with companies like Apple and Tesla to fuel new economic growth in the U.S. The bottom line is, though the market dipped, the economy is most likely not heading for a recession this year.